长期投资当然可以入市了
长期投资就是要在熊市买入靠谱的公司股票,持有到牛市卖出,获取超额收益。抄底是少数人凭运气的事,大多数人做不到。熊市有多长,这个也很难讲,长期投资最大的优势在于资金不求短期回报,也没有短期还款、用款的压力,可以耐心等待机会。这里有两个要素必须把握好:一是公司要靠谱,否则,还没有熬到牛市,他就壮烈了。二是整体上已经下跌很多了,估值非常便宜。目前的市场,估值已经下降了很多很多。但这还有争议:不少人认为,A股是超高价发行的,泡沫还远远没有挤完,虽然银行股市盈率很低了,但银行未来的坏账很多,风险很大,盈利瞬间就可能化为乌有,市盈率立马就可能飙升。这个可能性是很大的。至于其他股票,由于未来经济会很差,政府前几年胡逼调控的恶果要逐渐暴露,低效率投资的问题将不断显现,盈利必定下滑,所以动态估值一点也不低。这个可能性也很大。所以,总体上讲,现在是不是底部,很不确定。
但是,在市场的局部,已经呈现出长期投资的机会。首先,经过多年的考验,市场里还是能找到靠谱的公司:这些公司多年来经营稳健,收入稳定增长,管理较为规范,财务也比较健康,多年来没有爆出什么丑闻,而且能坚持分红,这一点非常重要!这样的公司,就是比较靠谱的。而且,在可以预期的未来,这些公司的业务不会有明显的下滑,收入预期稳定,成本基本可控,盈利基本可以保证。我认为,已经出现了这样的公司,比如,机场股,未来只要航班不减少,他们收入就不会少,机场的建成后,维持运营的费用基本是稳定的,建成时间越长,成本会越低。现在有的机场股才7、8倍市盈率,而且分红的股息率超过存款,这样的投资,应该很安全。其他运输股,像公路铁路也可以,但公路要考虑收费政策变化的风险和高铁的冲击。大秦铁路应该不错,专业运煤,虽然会因为需求问题业务下滑,但向下空间有限,目前估值很低了,7倍多市盈率,意味着投资7、8年就全部赚回来了,长期资金还有什么好犹豫的呢?水电股也很便宜,但有气候风险,不确定性稍大。虽然经济还要低迷一段时间,但在局部,已经显现出长线投资机会。当然,短期看,市场整体还会下跌,所以买入不能太急,长期资金应逐步小幅建仓。
正相反
回头是岸
走吧
要是不分红,就是1倍市盈率都没用
绝对不能忽悠人买中国的股票,这属于缺德。
我从楼上三位的反应中,依稀看到了希望。。。
坚决跟着老头走!
嗯,不知道会不会因为我的留言,让老头依稀看到的希望又变得渺茫起来了。。。
建仓是个缓慢的过程
现在的我越来越能体会到大师的话
谁都不是神仙
但是 真正的醒悟却是长久的耐力
长期资金就是被套资金。反弹已悄然而至。满仓只须一秒,不必急于一时。
@Nana
人家被套这么深自我安慰一下,你这么说很不厚道。
高手!
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