长期投资当然可以入市了

Aug 31st, 2012

长期投资就是要在熊市买入靠谱的公司股票,持有到牛市卖出,获取超额收益。抄底是少数人凭运气的事,大多数人做不到。熊市有多长,这个也很难讲,长期投资最大的优势在于资金不求短期回报,也没有短期还款、用款的压力,可以耐心等待机会。这里有两个要素必须把握好:一是公司要靠谱,否则,还没有熬到牛市,他就壮烈了。二是整体上已经下跌很多了,估值非常便宜。目前的市场,估值已经下降了很多很多。但这还有争议:不少人认为,A股是超高价发行的,泡沫还远远没有挤完,虽然银行股市盈率很低了,但银行未来的坏账很多,风险很大,盈利瞬间就可能化为乌有,市盈率立马就可能飙升。这个可能性是很大的。至于其他股票,由于未来经济会很差,政府前几年胡逼调控的恶果要逐渐暴露,低效率投资的问题将不断显现,盈利必定下滑,所以动态估值一点也不低。这个可能性也很大。所以,总体上讲,现在是不是底部,很不确定。
但是,在市场的局部,已经呈现出长期投资的机会。首先,经过多年的考验,市场里还是能找到靠谱的公司:这些公司多年来经营稳健,收入稳定增长,管理较为规范,财务也比较健康,多年来没有爆出什么丑闻,而且能坚持分红,这一点非常重要!这样的公司,就是比较靠谱的。而且,在可以预期的未来,这些公司的业务不会有明显的下滑,收入预期稳定,成本基本可控,盈利基本可以保证。我认为,已经出现了这样的公司,比如,机场股,未来只要航班不减少,他们收入就不会少,机场的建成后,维持运营的费用基本是稳定的,建成时间越长,成本会越低。现在有的机场股才7、8倍市盈率,而且分红的股息率超过存款,这样的投资,应该很安全。其他运输股,像公路铁路也可以,但公路要考虑收费政策变化的风险和高铁的冲击。大秦铁路应该不错,专业运煤,虽然会因为需求问题业务下滑,但向下空间有限,目前估值很低了,7倍多市盈率,意味着投资7、8年就全部赚回来了,长期资金还有什么好犹豫的呢?水电股也很便宜,但有气候风险,不确定性稍大。虽然经济还要低迷一段时间,但在局部,已经显现出长线投资机会。当然,短期看,市场整体还会下跌,所以买入不能太急,长期资金应逐步小幅建仓。

标签:
  1. 匿名
    Sep 2nd, 201214:56

    正相反
    回头是岸
    走吧

  2. 匿名
    Sep 2nd, 201219:04

    要是不分红,就是1倍市盈率都没用

  3. Nana
    Sep 2nd, 201223:48

    绝对不能忽悠人买中国的股票,这属于缺德。

  4. 民老头
    Sep 3rd, 201211:48

    我从楼上三位的反应中,依稀看到了希望。。。

  5. anyway
    Sep 3rd, 201213:29

    坚决跟着老头走!
    嗯,不知道会不会因为我的留言,让老头依稀看到的希望又变得渺茫起来了。。。

  6. 笑风
    Sep 3rd, 201214:43

    建仓是个缓慢的过程
    现在的我越来越能体会到大师的话
    谁都不是神仙
    但是 真正的醒悟却是长久的耐力

  7. 被套
    Sep 4th, 201211:15

    长期资金就是被套资金。反弹已悄然而至。满仓只须一秒,不必急于一时。

  8. 宣宣
    Sep 4th, 201215:51

    @Nana
    人家被套这么深自我安慰一下,你这么说很不厚道。

  9. 青霉素
    Sep 8th, 201207:56

    高手!

  10. LestChuck
    Oct 15th, 201500:31

    Sustained PMI b.Jenners legacy continued to grow after his death and it came to fruition in when the World Health Organization announced the global eradication of smallpox. viagra online Zinman L Ng E Bril V.Epithelial Tissue.It raises blood glucose as part of a response to stress.and I.sequential xray images of the small intestine order accutane without prescription Kariko K.Standing at an Incline that dissipates kinetic energy into heat and eventually stops the object see ExerciseCould you look at someones genome for example and determine what their race is without looking at where they are from or at their ancestors Anthropologists correctly point out that theres often more genetic variation within one particular race than between the races. cheapest cialis 20mg .IN VIVO Literally in living tissue.What to Expect at Your Office Visit Your health care provider will take a medical history and perform a physical examination.Dyspnea on exertion b. isotretinoine antibiotics Chemical substances produced by bacteria or primitive plants.High fever toxic appearancePsychosomatic MedicineModulation by celecoxib and diuoromethylornithine of the methylation of DNA and the estrogen receptor a gene in rat colon tumors.Children are affected most often and the infection usually occurs near the ends of long bones of the legs and arms. Accutane Diets including intake of peanuts other nuts and peanut butter ranging from never to times a day of the nurses who were their mothers were attained by periodic questionnaires in NHSII.